Democrats on High Alert: RFK Jr. Surging in Polls Poses Serious Challenge to Biden's Re-Election Bid
“While aware of him, much of the Biden and DNC gameplan seemed to be either an attempt to ignore his budding candidacy or mock it in passing while falsely smearing Kennedy when possible. Now — and quite suddenly — that gameplan seems to have morphed into full attack mode against RFK Jr. Why?” — The Hill
This, I’m told, is where things start to get weird and exciting as the political and legal wars start to ramp up over the coming weeks. I’m sure you’ve seen many articles fretting the likely prospect of a Black Swan event in this election?Everyone is bracing for the unexpected.
The latest twist is the surging popularity of RFK Jr. rattling the DNC enough for them to fund a full-blown attack on his campaign. Professional predictions promise that political warfare will intensify with heightened rhetoric, vicious smear campaigns, and strategic maneuvers becoming more prevalent. Candidates and parties are expected to inflate their efforts to sway public opinion by utilizing various tactics, including social media influence, targeted advertising, and grassroots mobilization. Additionally, debates and public appearances will likely become battlegrounds for ideological clashes and personal attacks as each side seeks to gain the upper hand on a national stage. The stakes are high, and tensions are expected to escalate as the countdown to Election Day nears.
Elizabeth Huntley Helps Break Down New Reasons For Attacks on Kennedy
Democrats Are Abandoning Biden To Join Team RFK
Recent intel suggests Democrats are starting to amp up efforts on derailing Robert F. Kennedy Junior's rising star because they've clocked that he is, in fact, a genuine threat to Biden's re-election bid—and they're absolutely right.
The independent candidate— who originally ran as a Democrat and who readers will be extremely familiar with thanks to HouseInhabit's extensive coverage of his campaign— has become the candidate of choice for many Democrats disillusioned with the Biden administration. Recent polling shows that this is particularly the case for Black voters— who voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020 but who feel overlooked and ignored by his presidency— and a swathe of voters who are turning away from Biden as a result of his support for "endless wars."
The Rising Star of 2024
RFK is currently polling at 15% nationally against Trump and Biden — the highest a third-party candidate has polled in four decades. That's up from just 1% in January, so his star is rising fast. In a favorability poll later in January, slightly different from a voting intentions poll but still hugely important, he beat both Trump and Biden, winning a 52% favorability rating against a 42% rating for Trump and a 41% rating for Biden. By the end of January, he also had a significantly lower unfavorability rating than both Trump and Biden.
“You may have read that the DNC has now committed to investing a mountain of money trying to smear me … this is what happens when you dare to give Americans a choice. The DNC wanted a coronation for President Biden. They never expected our movement to gain the kind of momentum it has.” — RFK on X
Because of his origins as a Democrat, a good chunk of those votes are being plucked from the Biden camp, not necessarily the Trump camp. So the fact of an incredibly strong third-party candidate who is increasingly splitting the liberal vote is very bad news for Biden— who, incidentally, has just reached his highest-ever unfavorability rating, hitting a 47% disapproval rating in early March.
Even Democratic strategist Doug Gordon said, according to The Hill, that it is becoming increasingly clear that RFK may "play spoiler" and "hand the keys of the White House back to Trump." A December Ipsos poll showed that RFK is peeling off more Biden voters than Trump voters. A November poll of the key battleground states—which will be hugely important in an increasingly tight race between an unpopular Biden and growing support for Trump— showed that Kennedy was more likely to pull votes from Biden's camp than Trump's. A February poll showed the same trend, with a clear difference between the number of voters switching from Biden to Kennedy and Trump to Kennedy.
One issue pushing long-time Democrats to favor RFK over Biden is the conflict in Gaza. Many voters—primarily young voters—have been telling pollsters that they have become increasingly angry at Biden's support for Israel and failure to denounce the atrocities being committed against civilians in Gaza.
A recent YouGov poll found 50 percent of self-described Biden voters called Israel's attacks on Gaza "a genocide." That's particularly problematic when you look at how low Biden's favourability ratings are— his margin of error is very small indeed. He cannot afford to lose even a few votes to RFK, let alone fifty percent.
This is not only showing up in the polls—it's showing up in person. Biden has been dogged all over the country by protestors who turn up at his events to protest his support for Israel. And it looks like if these voters can't see themselves voting for Biden, RFK will be their fallback pick.
The Biden camp is starting to pick up on how unpopular his stance has been and is trying to correct it—he recently signed an executive order sanctioning Israeli forces attacking Gaza— another sign that the Democratic Party has finally caught on to just how much of a threat RFK poses to a second Biden term.
In December, among 18- to 29-year-olds, Mr. Kennedy polled higher than both Biden and Donald Trump. A Quinnipiac poll showed that Kennedy has plucked off 40% of the 18- to 34-year-old vote. And this trend is particularly stark among young male voters, who are being pulled towards RFK in droves. Polls show that young men, in general, are becoming more conservative and less and less likely to vote Democrat.
RFK has run a very smart campaign for this demographic, overcoming mainstream barriers by lending himself to several in-depth appearances on high-impact podcasts, such as Joe Rogan's and Jordan Peterson's, which are particularly popular with disaffected young male voters.
Kennedy's campaign also emphasizes messages that are becoming increasingly important to young voters: opposing Covid mandates, being skeptical of vaccines and Big Pharma, and opposing the growing "wokeness" plaguing modern politics. RFK has long aligned himself with these views, and keen viewers are taking notice.
He has also made younger people feel heard and seen in a way that the two much older presidential candidates have not. In speeches, he has acknowledged that young Americans growing up today have been stripped of the American dream. He seems to be the only one concerned that this next generation will not be able to buy a house. Young voters listening are feeling the pain of that reality more than ever and appreciate that at least one candidate is looking out for them.
Guerilla Warfare Media Campaign
“Some of the Democrats I speak with believe the fear of Kennedy runs much deeper. To Kennedy’s point, they do believe his movement is taking much deeper root far off the radar screens of a mainstream media that refuses to cover him as well as those of the candidates of the two major parties.
Because he has been essentially blackballed by much of the mainstream media, Kennedy and his team have engaged in a powerful “get out the message” guerilla warfare media campaign by appearing on many of the most popular podcasts in the nation. Be it Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, the Chief Nerd or others, Kennedy — and his collective message — is now regularly being received by millions of Americans every week.
Keep in mind that the combined viewership of the broadcast network evening news programs averages about 18 million. Rogan’s podcast alone has surpassed 50 million streams multiple times, and Carlson’s as well. Kennedy has the potential to dwarf the viewership of the mainstream media while pounding home a message that seems to speak to many.” — The Hill
The trend is also showing up among Black voters, who are telling pollsters that they are increasingly tepid about Biden and showing that their votes are up for grabs. RFK has picked up on this, increasing his campaign efforts in Atlanta and targeting Black voters to try and bring them into his camp. He has also been playing up the Kennedy family's long history of support for civil rights and Black issues. This is a crucial aspect because Black voters in states like Georgia overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020 and were crucial to his victory. He cannot afford to lose them in a tightening race against Trump. A recent Georgia poll showed that only 58% of Black voters support Biden, compared to the 88% who voted for him in 2020. Of those 58%, 20% said they would be open to voting for a third-party candidate.
The genius of Kennedy is that his life story means he can pick up on these voters with his more conservative/Libertarian policies – voters who may vote for Trump but may also just stay home, if it weren't for RFK – but he also has a long history of bona fides as a liberal. He spent his career as an environmental lawyer, playing a massive part in the cleaning up of the Hudson River. This, along with his celebrated family history and his membership of the Democratic Party until recently, makes him a perfect alternative to Biden for many dienfranchinsed liberal voters.
After leaving the party in August, he said, "I'm a Democrat. You know, I'm a traditional Democrat." He continued, adding that "part of my mission here is to summon the Democratic Party back to its traditional ideals."
VP Likely to Shift Things
RFK is capitalizing on his hugely high polling numbers by teasing his VP picks in recent weeks, saying he will announce his choice on March 26 in California, and they may help peel off even more voters from both sides of the aisle. The current suggested favorite is Nicole Shanahan, a tech lawyer and ex-wife of Google founder Sergey Brin. Shanahan brings possibly more potential – firstly just by having a woman on the ballot – but also because she has mass funds to pour into the campaign, which will alleviate many of the financial obstacles Kennedy faces as a third-party candidate. With her attached, the financial feat of ballot access (estimated to be about 25 million) will prove exponentially more feasible. Forbes recently valued Brin's net worth at $113 billion. This is important now, as recent reports suggest that RFK Jr's funds are running low. However, it should also be noted that the pick could breed new skepticism: RFK has said previously that he would not choose a running mate based solely on cash.
Does pulling in someone like Shanahan taint his word / integrity?
Shanahan has already donated the maximum amount to RFK's campaigns; she agrees with his views on vaccines and approves of his history as an environmental lawyer. At 38, she's also incredibly young, providing a stark contrast to Trump and Biden, both well into their late 70s. She also donated $4 million to the Super PAC behind RFK Jr.'s famous Super Bowl ad, which featured a member of the HouseInhabit family.
In a perfect example of RFK Jr.'s threat to Biden, Shanahan illustrates this trend herself—she donated generously to Biden's campaign in 2020 and now looks set to join Team RFK.
But will a seemingly unknown, self-proclaimed "progressive" scare away right-leaning support Kennedy has garnered in recent months? Several I've talked to are concerned it could.
Democrats Ramping Up Attacks On RFK Via "DNC Bulldog" Lis Smith
In recent weeks, it has been revealed that the Democratic Party has launched a multi-pronged campaign to attack RFK Jr.'s credibility, demonstrating that they do see him now as a viable threat.
The Democratic National Committee has hired "play it dirty" operatives like Lis Smith, a high-profile Democratic strategist, to wage a mounting smear campaign against Kennedy.
Anon Sources On Lis Smith
“FYI the apparatus of the DNC is about to come down hard on RFK. The DNC bulldog they have on him is a fucking viper. They sic her on all of the Independents. I swear she comes from a different brand of NYC in that she is capable of thug shit. She has no moral compass. I can’t even imagine what they have planned for his running mate.”
“I wouldn’t call her a villain so much as a force. She’s also gorgeous.”
“Don’t forget, she created Pete Buttigieg out of thin air.”
“Watch out. She came back from maternity leave for this!”
"We're facing an unprecedented election, and we know the GOP is already working to prop up third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr. to make them stalking horses for Donald Trump," a spokesperson for the Democrats' anti-third party effort, Matt Corridoni, told NBC.
Part of the new Democratic attack on RFK also involves accusing him of violating campaign finance laws. In February, Democrats said that Kennedy's Super PAC, American Values, has been accepting donations of up to $15 million, which would violate federal campaign finance laws. The Democrats have filed an official complaint detailing these allegations.
Democrats have also started drilling the notion that Trump supporters are funding RFK Jr. in a bid to help spoil the election in favor of Trump.
DNC adviser Ramsey Reid said the party is "concerned that Donald Trump and his mega-donors are propping up RFK Jr."
"We're concerned that Donald Trump is disrespecting the democratic process. It's pretty clear that Trump and his megadonors are propping up RFK Jr. as a stalking horse," Reid continued on a call with reporters.
The Democratic National Committee has also attacked Tim Mellon, the billionaire behind much of the funding of the pro-RFK super PAC. Mellon has previously been a large donor to the Trump camp, fueling Democrats' allegations that Trump is propping up the RFK "spoiler" campaign.
One Saturday last month, the Democrats arranged to put up four big billboards surrounding an RFK Jr. event, all accusing him of being "powered by MAGA." The clear intention is to try to win back the groups of Democrats who have defected in favor of RFK by convincing them that a vote for RFK amounts to a vote for Trump.
Lis Smith also used the "stalking horse" accusation in a statement, saying, "It's clear that Donald Trump and his allies view [RFK] as a useful stalking horse who could help throw the election to Trump in November."
The DNC launched billboards in Michigan hitting RFK Jr. over donors linked to Trump / At The Gentleman’s Factory in Brooklyn where RFK hosted a 'Fireside Chat' in Honor of Black History Month, the DNC paid for a slanderous billboard truck to park outside.
Is RFK Jr. Just a ‘Spoiler’ Candidate For Biden — Or Could He Win?
The Democrats would have the public believe that RFK Jr.'s bid is only fit to steal votes from Biden and deliver a victory to Trump – but is it true? Could Kennedy actually win the White House? He's better positioned than any third candidate in recent history to have a real shot, particularly if his polling figures continue to rise as they have been since January.
The election is eight months away— a very long time in politics—so if these trends continue, could we be looking at a real shakeup; the possibility of creative and unexpected paths setting an underdog up for victory?
I believe in RFK Jr. and I’m not going to be scared out of voting for him even if it means 4 more years of Trump. I’ll take that over a world war, censorship, enslavement to pharmaceutical companies, and an unregulated border.
There are a lot of dirty tactics in the wings but I know people are worn out from the repetitive narrative and ready for real change. We must not forget that WE ARE THE PEOPLE and they are in office to represent us, not dictate us.